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Costco Stock Analysis: Key Financials, Analyst Ratings, and Investment Outlook

itda6930 2025. 5. 30. 05:15
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Costco Stock Analysis: Key Financials, Analyst Ratings, and Investment Outlook

Costco Wholesale Corporation (NASDAQ: COST) is a retail titan known for its membership-driven, low-price, high-volume model. This streamlined analysis delivers essential financial insights, analyst ratings, and investment recommendations, designed for clarity and quick comprehension, based on the latest data as of May 29, 2025.

Key Financial Highlights

  • Revenue Growth: Q2 FY2025 (ended March 6, 2025) reported $62.5B in revenue, up 9.1% YoY. April 2025 net sales reached $21.18B, a 7% YoY increase.
  • Earnings: Q2 EPS of $4.02, missing estimates by $0.072, causing a 6.1% stock price drop post-earnings.
  • Comparable Sales: April 2025 showed 4.4% growth globally, with 5.0% U.S. traffic growth.
  • E-commerce: Core e-commerce sales surged 17.5% YoY in April, driven by non-food categories.
  • Valuation: P/E ratio at 50.02, high compared to peers, signaling potential overvaluation.
  • Dividend: Recently raised 12% to $1.30/quarter, appealing to income investors.
  • Market Cap: $447.45B, with stock price at $1,008.50 (12-month range: $788.20–$1,078.23).
  • Key Ratios:
    • Net Income Margin: Low, typical of Costco’s high-volume strategy.
    • ROE: Top quartile among peers, reflecting strong management efficiency.
    • Liquidity Ratio: Solid, ensuring operational stability.
    • Debt-to-Equity: Moderate, balancing growth and financial prudence.

Challenges: High valuation, thin margins, and 26 risk factors, including tariff uncertainties and macroeconomic pressures, could impact profitability.

Costco Financial Snapshot (Q2 FY2025 & April 2025)

  • Revenue: $62.5B (Q2, +9.1% YoY); $21.18B (April, +7% YoY)
  • EPS: $4.02 (Q2, missed by $0.072)
  • Comparable Sales Growth: 4.4% global, 5.0% U.S. (April)
  • E-commerce Growth: 17.5% YoY (April)
  • P/E Ratio: 50.02
  • Dividend: $1.30/quarter (+12%)
  • Market Cap: $447.45B
  • Stock Price: $1,008.50 (Range: $788.20–$1,078.23)

Analyst Ratings

  • Consensus: “Moderate Buy” from 34 analysts (17 Strong Buy, 4 Moderate Buy, 13 Hold).
  • Price Target: Average $1,065.59 (2.42%–6.79% upside from $1,008.50).
    • High: $1,205 (UBS, +20.6% upside).
    • Low: $890 (Redburn Atlantic).
  • Recent Updates:
    • Bernstein (May 5, 2025): “Buy,” lowered target from $1,177 to $1,153.
    • Loop Capital & Telsey (May 8, 2025): “Buy,” citing strong sales and e-commerce.
    • DA Davidson (Feb 6, 2025): $1,000 target, implying 7.08% downside.
  • Sentiment: Slightly less bullish than prior quarters due to valuation and tariff concerns.

Investment Outlook

Strengths: Costco’s loyal membership base, operational efficiency, and 17.5% e-commerce growth make it a resilient choice. Its 11.5% projected EPS growth to $17.96 (FY2025) and dividend hike enhance its appeal.

Risks: High P/E ratio, neutral technicals (RSI 52.80), and potential tariff impacts suggest caution. The stock trades near its 20-day moving average ($1,009.33) but above 50-day ($970.22) and 200-day ($944.12) averages.

Recommendation: Moderate Buy for long-term investors. Consider waiting for a dip to $950–$975 for a better entry point, balancing growth potential with valuation risks. Ideal for those seeking stability in volatile markets.

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